iPhone nano

The presence of the iPhone is not yet a threat for entry and low cost competitors because it targets the 3G high-end market. The release of the iPhone in June 2007 has definitely muted the market place though. Nothing has been the same since then. I've had a question mark in my head for several weeks now. Is Apple about to release a low-cost iPhone? Everybody knows the success of the iPhone, but its marketshare is still a bit shy considering the entire mobile phone market. Or significant when taking a look to the smartphone market only. My thought is that Apple will definitely mark a step in the industry if it releases a 3G low-end phone. And this could come up sooner than expected...

If we have a look to the iPod story, we can see that Apple released a new product or version every year (see iPod timeline). I here make following analogy:

• the iPod classic is the high-end product in the music player market. As the iPhone is the high-end product in the mobile phone market.
• the iPod nano is the mid-end product, and the iPod shuffle the low-end product. There's no Apple product with such positioning in the mobile phone market yet.

Still iPod sales really jumped when the iPod shuffle was released, meaning when the low-end product was out in stores (iPod shuffle, Q2 2005). Assuming that they are trying to make the same deal with the iPhone in the mobile phone industry, we can infer following timeline:

• iPhone 2G was out June 2007
  
• iPhone 3G was out June 2008
  
• iPhone "Nano" should come up June this year (maybe delayed by 3 to 6 months due to the financial crisis. Though Apple does not seem to be impacted at all by the crisis...)
  
• iPhone "Shuffle" should come out June 2010
  

Sales and marketshare should explode at the release of the so-called iPhone shuffle, thus Q2 2010. Technical questions remain:

• What will these devices look like?
• Will they put a keyboard or some buttons like the iPod?
• Will they keep the touch-screen?
  
• Will it be 3G capable?

I think the iPhone "Nano" could be a smaller iPhone, keeping the touchscreen, no keyboard at all. Apple denies its existence but there is always space for changes... The iPhone "Shuffle" should look like an iPod Nano device, with a wheel and 4 to 8 buttons. No keyboard, no touchscreen. Basic phone features (call, SMS, ...) but full-featured music and video capabilities, like the iPod Nano today. The main problem with this device is how will we enter a phone number with this interface, how will me make a new call without a keyboard or touchscreen to type numbers? I just hope the iPhone "shuffle" won't call randomly a person as the Nano randomly selects a song for you ;-)

EDIT: There is always somebody else who thought about it before ;-)

[ image source: informationarchitects.jp ]